While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. At cost, D'Andre Swift and others are better combinations of floor and ceiling. His production waned down the stretch in Carolina last year, and when was the last time we cared about an Atlanta running back in fantasy football anyway? The current regime did not select Robinson. He also is a touchdown liability -- he's scored 5, 6, and 4 touchdowns in three of his four seasons (11 the other season), which had led to finishing outside the Top 25 each of those years. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. Cohen is not even a projected injury-away auto-start fantasy option heading into training camp. Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs' ADP would be justified and reasonable if the Raiders hadn't added Kenyan Drake, but they did. In June 2008, Sports Illustrated polled nearly 500 players on the most overrated athlete in baseball, and Jeter was numero uno. Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. There are too many risk factors to comfortably draft Ekeler as a No. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. Without the volume, he is hard to use. It is also quite possible that Gordon isn't even on the team by the time Week 1 rolls around. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. . Swift relied heavily on touchdown production for his fantasy numbers. But I do not believe The Bus should be in the list of the top 40 RBs of all time. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. Curtis Martin 11. Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. He showed elite promise in his rookie year and followed it up with a top 10 season despite a high ankle sprain limiting his ascension. Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. The Raiders are sure to recoup as much production as they can on the $8.5 million guarantee they gave Drake on a two-year deal, so this will look closer to a committee than a true lead-back situation. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. Its almost always the other way around for top tier RBs. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Gaskin has missed long periods through injury in his first two seasons in the league. The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB17. The role we envisioned for Johnson is already in question. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Drafting running backs on the downside of their career, on bad offenses, in a platoon situation, is fraught with peril. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? In no way am I saying Bettis should not be a hall of famer. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. The Top Ten 1 David Beckham David Robert Joseph Beckham is (born 2 May 1975) is an English former professional footballer, the current president & co-owner of Inter Miami CF and co-owner of Salford City.. Marcus Allen 15. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. Jason Wood: Sometimes fate aligns, and that's what happened for Mike Davis last year in Carolina. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). Jordan McNamara: Fixing your running game by drafting running backs is a losing strategy. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. With the second-year back getting selected in the early second round of most drafts, fantasy managers must be expecting that trend to continue in 2021. That is still great, but not quite as good as many people have him ranked. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. Unlike Lindsay, Williams can supplant Gordon at the goal line, and there's some possibility that Williams takes over the backfield right away. Gibson fumbled in the preseason opener, and ball security has been an issue as he coughed up the football four times last year. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. 3) Micah Richards. Andrew Davenport: Fournette's production in the playoffs was artificially inflated by the injury to Ronald Jones II, and part of Fournette's regular-season fantasy production last year was due to his pass-catching role. Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. "The Philadelphia Story," on the other hand, was a comedy, a genre not often seen as Best Picture worthy. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. I definitely do not want the most expensive option here (Carter), but Coleman and Johnson are arbitrage plays. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. At 5-foot-6 and 191 pounds, Cohen is too small and one-dimensional to be used as a lead back even if David Montgomery gets hurt. Backs who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage are going after Chubb. However, I would ask - where is the upside to tilt a league here? If Gordon's injury is extended, Williams could be appropriately priced, but until there is more information, he is an avoid at cost. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. His best year came in 2011 when he ran for 10 touchdowns and 1,047 yards, but other than that he didn't do much else. Ben Cummins: Im a big fan of Antonio Gibsons talent, but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. Gordon isn't going away just because fantasy managers want him to. Jamal Lewis-- RB, 2000-06 There have been seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, and Jamal Lewis is by far the least memorable of the bunch. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. Jan 26 . And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Brown has always been a strong contributor inside the five-yard line scoring 9 rushing touchdowns in the last two years in that hot zone. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. For example, take Imagine Dragons and Maroon 5, both very accomplished. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. The Top Ten. 1 status. 5. He was used more as a receiver than anything. Ryan Hester: This isnt a knock on Harris, whose athletic profile and projected workload are things fantasy players dream of. Ty Johnson has strong athleticism and played over Carter in the first week of the preseason, and La'Mical Perine has a similar profile to Carter. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Single Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB22. Nyheim Hines is one of the premier pass-catching options, and Marlon Mack's health is a wildcard in the Colts' backfield rotation. Hes the favorite for running back targets, but the offense doesnt really throw to the running backs. His career YPC was 3.9. First, Johnson turns 30 in December, and considering all the injuries he's dealt with in his NFL career, it's hard to see him aging well. The Giants offensive line, playcalling, and quarterback play give us no faith that they can help create fantasy overachievers. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB9 | Consensus Projections RB9. Dave Kluge: Sure, youre not giving up any crazy draft capital to get J.D. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. 1. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. Martin is one of the best running backs of all time because he blended good ability with outstanding durability and versatility. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. 5 / 30. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB17. There have been personnel changes and a change in offensive coordinator to Matt Canada. Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB21. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Tony Dorsett 12. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. A new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh also adds uncertainty to the situation. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. But now in the NFL, he is removed from passing down work in favor of J.D. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. Even last year, as the Panthers starter, he averaged just 3.9 yards-per-carry. Here are the NFL running backs with the most career touchdown runs over 50 yards (based on stats through 2016). Chase Edmonds, Arizona | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB23. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. Michael Carter, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings RB37 | Consensus Projections RB36. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. Most Overrated QB: Tom Brady 1 of 6 The Ravens have had the #1 rushing offense in the league for the last two years straight but have finished 31st overall in total running back targets in that same time span. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Avoid. While he can certainly put up some strong fantasy weeks, the savvier move would be to wait for the younger backs later in the draft. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. Also, Jalen Hurts is poised to siphon a few short-range scores from the running back position. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. If he is still on the opening day roster, Gordon's workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. Theyre going to be one of the worst teams in NFL History. Sigmund Bloom: Not that the Texans offense was anything you wanted to go near in fantasy drafts in the first place, but Johnson's ADP needs to adjust by multiple rounds to the news that he will be sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II and no longer in the lead back role. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. Montgomery hasn't turned a corner in his career arc. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB30. Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. Color me skeptical Sanders has a new ceiling for receiving production with Scott and Gainwell passing game-centric options, and Howard could be a goal-line option. His ADP has been climbing recently, and while his price says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, he's still being overvalued at his current price. J.K. McKissic, Washington | Consensus Rankings RB47 | Consensus Projections RB45. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. My, my, how the game has changed. Even if he receives most of the early-down and passing game work, it still wont be very valuable on a putrid offense. Murray scored 11 rushing touchdowns in 9 different games in 2020. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. I believe it is more accurate to measure a RB by per season averages, because running backs such as Jim Brown did not play long. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. 15 Best Running Backs of All-Time; Christian McCaffery and Nick Chubb, running backs. Jamal Lewis 18. Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. Every NFL team's most overrated player of all time Jarrett Bailey 12/21/2021 180K donated to doctor who preformed 10-year-old girl's abortion to help with legal costs, security. Gaskin may be the best receiver of the trio, but Ahmed isn't far behind. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. His value is trending in the wrong direction. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB22. He has good hands, but his route running hurt his opportunities to make clean catches against man-to-man coverage. If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. Anthony Amico: Dobbins is being drafted as if he has a far greater stranglehold on this Ravens backfield than he likely will. Pat Fitzmaurice: This is the type of player I won't draft at any cost. J.D. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. Davis was great in relief of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last year, but he got tired quickly. John Riggins 19. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. He's as gifted a receiver as he is a runner, which allows him to have huge games regardless of game script. Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB18. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Yes, but it doesn't feel like he'll be a top-10 type of running back, even in the Chiefs' potent offense. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. Gibson plays on a bad offense, has rushing competition from Robinson, and receiving competition from McKissic. So what's the concern? 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. The only other way for one of them to achieve high-end RB1 value would be an injury that allows the other to see an increased workload. Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals. Dillon a lot, and reports from OTAs have been promising. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. Kudos to James Robinson. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. The more problematic issue is that the Texans are a train wreck. Pat Fitzmaurice: The appeal is that he's an inexpensive lead back. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB27 | Consensus Projections RB31. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. Henry is one of my favorite players in the league, but there are preferable first-round picks for me in 2021. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. 54 touchdowns. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish.
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